-- A new analysis of the world-leading HadCRUT5 global temperature record reveals that a total of six months, including March 2023, have exceeded 1.5°C of global warming, the threshold associated with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN-FCCC) 2015 Paris Agreement. The analysis, conducted by EarthSystemData UK, assessed HadCRUT5 - a leading global data set used by the United Nations to monitor global climate, by re-expressing the data relative to its 1850-1900 pre-industrial average - in line with how the United Nations 1.5°C threshold is determined. The months which have exceed 1.5°C of warming are: January 2016 [+1.51°C], February 2016 [+1.63°C], March 2016 [+1.62°C]; February 2020 [+1.53°C], March 2020 [+1.53°C]; and March 2023 [+1.56°C]. These findings reveal the first extended periods during which the globe has exceeded the established UN-FCCC 'safe warming limit', however they do not signify a formal breach of the legally-binding Paris Agreement target, which requires a multi-year average in excess of +1.5°C to confidently attribute the breach to human-causes."Nevertheless, we are seeing the first data points that will likely constitute that extended breach. There could be no clearer warning - as if repeated climate disasters are not enough, it is there now, in the numbers, right in front of us." commented Dr. Craig Wallace who performed the analysis. "2016, and to an extent, 2020, were influenced by strong EL Niño conditions which raise the planet's temperature adding to the human carbon-driven warming. March 2023's figure is exceptional, however, since it occurred during the tail end of a La Niña phase which actually cools the planet, offsetting some of the human, warming. This suggests the true human-driven heating in March was actually greater than the reported +1.56°C"
Contact Info:
Name: Dr Craig Wallace
Email: Send Email
Organization: EarthSystemData Ltd
Website: https://earthsystemdata.com
Release ID: 89101917
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