Commentary on URA Q3 2026 statistics - Office, Retail, and Residential

Singapore, Singapore, October 23, 2026 -- By Tricia Song (宋明蔚), Head of Research, Singapore and Southeast Asia, CBRE

Office

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) Office Rental Index for the Central Region rose 0.8% q-o-q in Q3 2026, the same pace as in Q2 2026 and the second consecutive quarterly increase. According to CBRE Research, this trend reflects sustained occupier demand across sectors and submarkets, against a constrained supply pipeline.

The trend is sharper in CBRE’s Core CBD Grade A data. According to CBRE Research, Core CBD Grade A rents rose 2.0% q-o-q to S$12.75 psf per month in Q3 2026, compared with 0.8% in the previous quarter. Vacancy in the segment fell to 2.6% from 3.3% in Q2 2026. With limited near-term supply and few options for contiguous premium space, conditions remain firmly landlord favourable.

Office stock fell by 72,000 sq m (nett) in Q3 2026. With no notable completions in the quarter, the decline came from existing space leaving the market. URA data shows the reductions were concentrated in two postal districts: 19,035 sq m in D02 (Anson, Tanjong Pagar) and 41,620 sq m in D04 (Telok Blangah, HarbourFront). According to CBRE, these withdrawals are likely linked to the redevelopment of 79 Anson and HarbourFront Centre.

The 1.0 percentage point fall in island-wide vacancy, to 10.0%, was driven mainly by the withdrawal of existing space, with stronger occupier demand also contributing. Occupied space grew by 17,000 sq m in Q3, the second consecutive quarter of positive net absorption.

According to CBRE Research, AI firms added to leasing demand in Q3 2026, on top of an already broad-based occupier market. Demand came from AI companies of different sizes, from those taking flexible workspace to occupiers seeking dedicated space in prime buildings. Publicly reported commitments include Anthropic at The Executive Centre in Ocean Financial Centre and Manus AI at Industrious in Keppel South Central. OpenAI is also in negotiations for about 120,000 sq. ft. at Shaw Tower. While AI firms featured prominently this quarter, financial services occupiers remained the largest source of demand year-to-date, according to CBRE Research.

According to CBRE Research, following the completion of Shaw Tower in Q2 2026, the next notable new supply in the CBD is Newport Tower in 2027. With limited new supply on the horizon, occupiers are increasingly targeting projects due from 2028 onwards, including One Comcentre, The Clifford and The Skywaters. Pre-commitment activity continues to build as firms move earlier in the leasing cycle to secure quality space before availability narrows.

Outlook

According to CBRE Research, Core CBD Grade A rents have risen 3.7% year-to-date, and CBRE Research expects that momentum to continue in Q4 2026. Vacancy in the segment is tight, and with no notable completions are due in the quarter, occupier demand should keep outpacing available space.

As a result, CBRE Research expects Core CBD Grade A rents to grow by more than 5% in 2026, which would be the strongest annual performance since the 8.3% recorded in 2022. Limited new supply through 2027 and resilient occupier demand should keep upward pressure on rents. This outlook assumes economic conditions and occupier hiring hold steady. A significant deterioration in either could temper the pace of rental growth.

Retail

With nominal retail sales growth slowing and inflation rising, retail sales (excluding motor vehicles) in real terms declined y-o-y for two straight months in Jul and Aug 2026, hinting at weaker consumer confidence amid rising retrenchments and persistent inflationary pressures. The Middle East conflict also continued to weigh on tourism activity, with visitor arrivals declining by 1.8% y-o-y in Q3 2026 due to higher airfares.

Despite cautious sentiment among some retailers amid ongoing Middle East tensions, leasing activity remained resilient in Q3 2026, underpinned by expansion demand from F&B and fashion brands such as Chick-fil-A, Loulouca, Pop Bakery, In Good Company and Polène. Sustained leasing momentum continued to support rental growth, with URA’s Q3 2026 data showing that rents of retail space in the Central Region rose by 0.7% q-o-q, accelerating from the 0.6% q-o-q growth the previous quarter. Similarly, CBRE Research’s data showed that islandwide prime floor rents increased by 0.4% q-o-q in Q3 2026, bringing YTD 2026 rent growth to 1.2%.

At the same time, tenant exits and footprint rationalisation by operators including True Fitness, Crystal Jade and Japan Home reflected continued churn within the competitive retail landscape. Against this backdrop, landlords increasingly sought to optimise asset performance through alternative uses, with Taste Orchard's repositioning into JustCo Place and Orchard Central's announced office conversion representing the most significant retail-to-office shifts since The Centrepoint leased space to JustCo in 2020.

As a result, URA data showed that the islandwide private retail market recorded negative net absorption of 21,000 sq. m. (about 226,000 sq. ft.) in Q3 2026, extending the negative net absorption of 29,000 sq. m. (about 312,000 sq. ft.) in the previous quarter. However, vacancy remained stable q-o-q at 7.0%, as the negative net absorption was largely offset by a net withdrawal of 22,000 sq. m. (about 237,000 sq. ft.) of stock, mainly due to the closure of HarbourFront Centre for redevelopment.

The stock withdrawal of HarbourFront Centre also helped mitigate vacancy pressures in the Fringe submarket, where vacancy rose only marginally from 7.6% to 7.7% in Q3 2026 despite posting the highest negative net absorption among all submarkets at 17,000 sq. m. (about 183,000 sq. ft.), extending the negative net absorption of 2,000 sq. m. (about 22,000 sq. ft.) in the previous quarter. The continued negative absorption was likely attributable in part to the closure of several retailers at Kallang Wave Mall due to its ongoing AEI works.

Conversely, the Outside Central Region (OCR) submarket reversed its Q2 2026 underperformance, becoming the only area to register positive net absorption of 6,000 sq. m. (about 65,000 sq. ft.) in Q3 2026, after recording negative net absorption of 12,000 sq. m. (about 129,000 sq. ft.) in the previous quarter. The submarket continued to attract retailer interest due to its resilient local catchment. OCR vacancy thus fell from 5.2% to 4.7% in Q3 2026.

Outlook

Retailers continue to face manpower shortages, higher operating costs—exacerbated by the Middle East conflict—and intense e-commerce competition. Nevertheless, strong tourism spending, underpinned by a strong pipeline of MICE events and concerts, and resilient domestic consumption should sustain demand for prime retail space. With future supply set to remain below historical norms in the next three years, CBRE Research expects prime retail rents to increase by 1–2% in 2026.

Residential

The private residential price index rose 1.4% q-o-q, unchanged from flash estimates, led by OCR non-landed homes which rose 2.3% q-o-q, while RCR (Rest of Central Region) and CCR (Core Central Region) were relatively stable. Developer take-up has slowed in Q3, and unsold inventory has risen sharply, although this implies just about 2.5 years of land bank. There was also a jump in completions in Q3, and with a slight drop in occupied units, vacancies were up across all market segments. Despite this, rents were up 1.3% q-o-q surprisingly, perhaps signalling higher rents at the new projects. We maintain our full year price growth forecast of 2-4% and upgrade our full year rent forecast to 2-3%.

Price

In Q3 2026, URA’s price index for private residential properties showed that Singapore's private home price growth accelerated. Prices rose 1.4% q-o-q in Q3 2026, after 0.5% growth in Q2 2026. This is the fastest quarterly increase since Q4 2024 when prices posted a 2.3% increase.

The increase was led by landed homes and OCR non-landed homes which both rose above 2% q-o-q, while CCR non-landed prices rose marginally and RCR non-landed prices were flat. This brings islandwide private home price growth in 9M 2026 to 2.8%. Landed property prices rose 2.9% q-o-q in Q3 2026, extending the 2.5% q-o-q increase in Q2 2026 while the non-landed home price index rebounded, posting 1% q-o-q growth after dipping 0.1% in Q2 2026. Cumulatively, landed home prices rose 5.1% and non-landed home prices rose 2.2% in 9M 2026.

Price performance was mixed across non-landed market segments, led by the OCR which saw 2.3% q-o-q growth. On the other hand, the CCR posted a more marginal increase of 0.3% q-o-q and the RCR was flat.

• OCR prices led non-landed price growth in Q3 2026, up 2.3% q-o-q, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in Q2. The OCR's outperformance could have been driven by new launch Lentor Gardens Residences (499 units), the seventh private home project in the Lentor precinct. Launched in July, the project sold 304 units at a median price of $2,357 psf over the quarter, 6.5% higher than the median price of $2,214 psf across units sold at the last Lentor launch Lentor Central Residences in March 2025, and setting a new benchmark price in the Lentor estate.
• The marginal 0.3% q-o-q rise in CCR price came following a high base in Q2 when prices rose 1.8% on the back of firm pricing at River Modern above $3,200 psf. Q3's main CCR launch was Dunearn House (380 units), the first project in the upcoming Bukit Timah Turf City masterplan, which sold 237 units at a median price of $3,107 psf in the quarter.
• In the absence of new launches, RCR prices were flat in Q3, after falling 1.2% in Q2.

Cumulatively, OCR and CCR prices have risen 4.4% and 2.7% respectively in 9M 2026 while RCR prices fell 0.4%.

Table 2: Top 10 best-selling new developer sales projects (excluding ECs) in Q3 2026 (ranked in descending order by no. of units sold in the quarter)

Source: URA, CBRE Research. *Based on Realis caveats as of 23 Oct 2026.

Rents

Despite abundant completions and a deterioration in vacancy rates, the rental index of private residential properties rose for a third consecutive quarter, up 1.3% q-o-q in Q3 2026, faster than the 0.7% q-o-q growth in Q2. This could be due to higher rents at newly completed projects. The rent increase in Q3 2026 was driven by the landed segment which rose 2.1% q-o-q, albeit moderating from 2.7% q-o-q growth last quarter.

Meanwhile, non-landed segment rental growth accelerated in Q3 2026 to 1.2% q-o-q after rising 0.4% in Q2, led by a rebound in OCR rents which were up 3.1% q-o-q following a 0.3% decline in Q2 2026. RCR rents grew 1.5% q-o-q in Q3 following a flat Q2, while the CCR underperformed falling 0.3%, a correction after the 1.2% increase in Q2 2026.

Cumulatively, 9M 2026 rents have risen 1.4%, 1.3% and 3.8% in the CCR, RCR and OCR respectively.

Vacancy and supply

Overall private residential occupancy rates continued to deteriorate in Q3 2026 on a surge in completions – 3,559 units (ex-ECs) completed in Q3 2026 vs 1,212 units in Q2 2026. This was the highest quarterly completions since 4,085 units in Q4 2023. The number of occupied private residential units (ex-ECs) fell by 305 units, compared to a decrease of 387 units in Q2 2026. As such, the vacancy rate of completed private residential units (excl. ECs) islandwide rose to 7.2% in Q3 2026, from 6.4% in Q2.

Vacancy rates of completed private residential properties in the CCR, RCR and OCR were 8.4%, 7.4% and 6.5% respectively, compared with 8.3%, 6.1% and 5.6% in the previous quarter.

While all market segments saw a rise in vacancy rates, RCR saw the biggest jump of 1.3ppt as it saw the largest number of completions with Grand Dunman (1,008 units) and Pinetree Hill (520 units) receiving their TOP during the quarter. OCR also has considerable completions in Hillock Green (474 units), Lentor Mansions (533 units) and Norwood Grand (348 units).

Looking ahead, 2,613 private residential units (excl. ECs) are expected to complete in Q4 2026, 26.6% lower than the 3,559 units in Q3 2026 but higher than the 1,611 units completed in H1. This brings total 2026 completions to 7,783 units, 27.1% higher than 2025 completions of 6,123 units. The bulk of Q4 2026 completions are expected to come from the RCR and OCR.

Newly TOP ed projects will broaden tenant choices, and leasing may take longer as tenants become more selective and landlords compete for quality occupants especially amid slower hiring conditions. Overall rents have risen 2.3% in 9M 2026. CBRE Research forecasts a full year growth of 2-3%.

Sales and unsold inventory

Developers sold 1,183 new private homes (ex ECs) in Q3 2026, 44.7% lower q-o-q from the 2,141 units sold in Q2 2026. This came on the back of fewer launches in the quarter amid the 7th Lunar month lull – developers launched 1,140 uncompleted private residential units (excl. ECs) in Q3 compared with 1,783 units in Q2.

Alongside slower new sales, unsold inventory of uncompleted private residential units (excluding ECs) rose significantly by 26.3% q-o-q in Q3 2026 to 18,853 units from 14,929 units in Q2 2026. Including completed units, unsold inventory likewise increased 26.7% from 15,057 units in Q2 2026 to 19,076 units in Q3 2026. Unsold inventory is still significantly lower than the last peak of 37,799 units recorded in Q1 2019. At 19,076 units, this implies about two and a half years’ of landbank based on the 5-year annual average new home sales (2021 – 2025) of 8,766 units.

9M 2026 new sales now tally at 5,337 units, 32.2% lower than the 7,875 units sold in 9M 2025 amid fewer launches, higher price points and demand normalisation following 2025's four-year high sales.

Outlook

Looking ahead, sales momentum is expected to pick up in Q4, led by the highly anticipated launch of Thomson Reserve (1,268 units) in October, which could unlock pent-up demand.

Barring major economic shocks, CBRE Research projects that 7,500 - 8,000 new homes will be sold in 2026 given healthy household balance sheets, low unemployment rate, and low mortgage rates. This represents a moderation after above-trend sales of 10,815 units in 2025 and is below the 5-year average (2021 – 2025) of 8,766 units.

Private home prices have risen 2.8% in 9M 2026 and could close the year at the higher bound of our forecasted 2 – 4% full-year growth forecast, slower than MTI’s 2026 GDP growth forecast of 4.5 – 5.5%.

About CBRE Group, Inc.

CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE: CBRE), a Fortune 500 and S&P 500 company headquartered in Dallas, is the world’s largest commercial real estate services and investment firm and a premier provider of critical infrastructure services. The company has more than 155,000 employees serving clients in more than 100 countries. CBRE serves clients through four business segments: Advisory (leasing, sales, debt origination, mortgage servicing, valuations); Building Operations & Experience (facilities management, property management, flex space & experience, critical infrastructure); Project Management (program management, project management, cost consulting); Real Estate Investments (investment management, development). Please visit our website at www.cbre.com.

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