The third update version of Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q2 2017 ranks Singapore at the top followed by Sweden and New Zealand. 30 countries were identified in the very low risk zone, 34 countries in the low risk zone, 39 countries under manageable risk, 25 countries under high risk and 8 countries in the very high risk zone in GCRI Q2 2017.
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Reverse globalization, cyber crimes, geo-political tensions, rising inequality, policy uncertainty of major economies, automation and job loss rising pollution levels, ageing population and fiscal crisis has been identified as the key global risk factors of 2017. Political stability seems to improve in Europe and North America with declining trends in populism and nationalism. However, the Africa and Latin America continues to witness fall in political stability with upcoming elections. The 2017 Qatar diplomatic crisis marked by several countries abruptly cutting off diplomatic relations with Qatar in June 2017 increased regional tensions in the Middle East. The crisis marks the growing divisions between Shia and Sunni countries. Saudi Arabia and other countries have criticized Al Jazeera and Qatar's relations with Iran. The prolonged period of low interest rates seems to be over as major central banks aims to tighten monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is expected to take the unprecedented step of reducing the balance sheet it built up to save the economy from the financial crisis. Last two years witnessed some of the worst security breaches in history, including cyber-attack during the US elections, attacks on big firms like Yahoo, Tumblr, and LinkedIn, and the recent ransom ware attack. This has revealed the ability of the hacking community to have a major influence on world events.
- Based on political stability factor, greater transparency, good governance, better regulatory quality and control of corruption; GCRI ranks Norway at the top and Syria at the bottom in Q2 2017.
- Analysis based on higher economic growth, lower inflation rate, lower debt, easy access to credit, availability of venture capital etc, Sweden tops the countries list indicating lowest economic risk followed by USA, Taiwan and Norway in GCRI in Q2 2017.
- In terms of literacy rate, life expectancy, lower dependency ratio, flexible wages and capacity to attract, Singapore ranked at the top and Chad at the bottom in GCRI Q2 2017.
- Finland tops the countries list in terms of lowest technological risk factor followed by Korea, Japan and Singapore in GCRI in Q2 2017 based on the capacity for innovation, ICT landscape, mobile and internet penetration.
- New Zealand is having the least risk and Syria highest in terms of legal risk factor in GCRI in Q2 2017 based on the property rights, strength of investor’s protection, intellectual property protection and efficiency in legal frame work whereas Syria is have the highest risk.
- In terms to environmental factor, Sweden is having the lowest risk and Bangladesh is having the highest risk in GCRI Q2 2017. The analysis and ranking were based on the factors including level of emissions and natural disaster.
Reasons to buy
- Global Risk Report is based on Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.
- The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.
Table of Content: Key Points
1 Table of Contents 2
1.1 List of Tables 4
1.2 List of Figures 4
2 Country Risk Index (GCRI) - Overview 6
2.1 Global Overview: Current Scenario 7
2.2 GCRI - Key Risk Factors 8
3 Analysis of Best and Worst Performers 11
3.1 Analysis of Top 5 Performers 11
3.1.1 SINGAPORE 11
3.1.2 SWEDEN 11
3.1.3 NEW ZEALAND 11
3.1.4 SWITZERLAND 12
3.1.5 NORWAY 12
3.2 Analysis of Bottom 5 Performers 13
3.2.1 SYRIA 13
3.2.2 CHAD 13
3.2.3 BURUNDI 14
3.2.4 YEMEN 14
3.2.5 GUINEA 15
4 Top Ranked Countries-Pestle framework 16
4.1 GCRI - Political Risk 16
4.1.1 Recent developments 17
4.1.2 Things to watch in future 17
4.2 GCRI - Economic Risk 18
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