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Paul Tudor Jones seems to have agreed with several other capital market experts after forecasting that the stock market could experience a big surge at the beginning of 2021 as a result of the next fiscal stimulus. The billionaire investor made his opinion known during a recent interview with CNBC, seemingly prepping stock market players for an amazing 2021 starting from the first quarter.“At some point in the first quarter next year you're going to have a big move to the upside from whatever level that might be, as people get cash from this first stimulus program and they deploy that in a variety of financial assets,” said Jones.
The billionaire founder of Tudor Investment Corp. attributed his forecast to a large amount of buying witnessed after the CARES Act stimulus bill passed last spring, stating that “Robinhood nation ... went crazy and bought stocks.”
Paul also expressed his expectation for the passage of the stimulus within the next two months, with a total amount of about $1.7 trillion. However, he is advising investors to brace up for shakier stocks at the end of 2020.
“I could easily see a situation where the market sells off in the year-end, and then you have that typical beginning of the year rally, that might ramp all the way through the end of the first quarter, certainly the mid-part of the first quarter,” Jones said.
In the interview, Jones also expressed his view of Joe Biden’s capital-gains tax plan, stating that financial assets would suffer a great deal in the long run if the plan comes alive.
“If you go back and look in history there's an inverse relationship it's loose but it's clearly there between stocks multiples and capital-gains tax,” he said. “I think the Biden tax plan is actually going to do exactly what it's designed to do, which is to help Main Street, help the average American,” Jones continued. “And it's going to come at the expense of the 1%, primarily whose wealth is encapsulated in the stock market and financial assets, and it's going to come at their expense and you're probably going to get a multiple compression, and you'll probably get some kind of mean reversion.”
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